Site Announcement

I promised a big announcement yesterday, and here it is.

I was recently offered an opportunity to do my writing on a larger platform, and I accepted the opportunity to work with someone who is not only extremely knowledgeable about baseball and the Royals, but someone who I consider a friend.

When I started this blog in September of last year it was because I was looking for an outlet to write and what better to write about than the Royals? I doubt he remembers, but I actually talked through email with Rany Jazayerli about blogging and how to make it in the sports world and he gave me a piece of advice that I try to adhere to. He told me that to blog for myself and not for other people.

From now on I’ll be blogging for myself at www.pinetarpress.com. It’s a fantastic site run by Greg Schaum, as many of you probably know. I’m incredibly excited about this opportunity. I’d like to thank all my readers and hope that you’ll follow me to pinetarpress.com. It’ll be the same blog, just on a different site.

Remember, go to www.pinetarpress.com. If you haven’t bookmarked it already, you should have, but do it now.

Pine Tar Press

Announcement Tomorrow

Sorry for the lack of posts this week. Some crazy stuff has been coming up, but there’ll be a big announcement here tomorrow, so tune in then.

Pay Attention to the Rays

The Royals upcoming series with the Rays is a series that I always look forward to because watching the Rays is really satisfying to me. I guess it has something to do with the fact that it makes me believe that it will be possible for the Royals to win again at some point. You see, for the first 10 years the Rays were in existence, they were absolutely terrible. They gathered top of the first round draft picks and continued to lose 90+ games every season until finally in 2008, they broke through with all their young talent. They won the American League East, which most people said would be impossible without a significant change in the salary structure in baseball, and they ended up in the World Series where they lost to the Phillies. The Rays are a reminder to me of what is possible in baseball.

The big difference between the upcoming 2012 Royals and the 2008 Rays is that the Rays had pitching that the Royals just don’t have. Granted, they lucked into Scott Kazmir, their ace, when the Mets decided to trade him for Victor Zambrano in one of the most ridiculous trades of all time. Still, though, they had more starting pitching than the Royals have today. The thing the Royals have that the Rays didn’t (and don’t) is money to spend, so if there is a starting pitcher on the trading block, the Royals can take on salary that the Rays simply weren’t capable of doing. Even looking at it position by position, there is a lot of odd similarities in what can be expected from players in the 2012 season for the Royals compared to what the Rays got out of their 2008 roster.

Starting with the catching position, the Rays got average offensive and defensive production from Dioner Navarro. I think it’s perfectly reasonable for the Royals to get the same production from whoever is part of their catching tandem next season. At first base, the Rays had Carlos Pena who played great defense, hit 30 homers, drove in 100 runs and got on base at a nice clip. I think Hosmer will walk a little less than Pena did, but will make up for that with his batting average. At second base was Akinori Iwamora who played solid defense and was slightly below average as a hitter. I think Johnny Giavotella will be the second baseman for the Royals this year. What he lacks in defense, I believe he’ll make up for in offense. At shortstop, the Rays had Jason Bartlett who was named the team MVP in spite of his .690 OPS. I don’t think there’s any reason that Escobar can’t put up similar numbers while playing even better defense than Bartlett. The position where the Rays will probably outshine the Royals is third base where Evan Longoria had his fine rookie season. Mike Moustakas will probably hit for about equal power, but won’t be Longoria’s equal on defense or anywhere else across the board.

Moving to the outfield, I think Gordon has an opportunity to be better than Carl Crawford was in 2008 when he posted a .273/.319/.400 line and stealing 25 bases. Now he was injured a fair amount during the season, but he was picked up by Eric Hinske who hit 20 homers in a platoon outfield role. The interesting comparison is Lorenzo Cain and B.J. Upton. I’ve said many times that Cain is comparable to Austin Jackson of the Tigers, and I stand by that, but I could see Cain putting up similar numbers to Upton’s 2008 season for the Royals in center field, but not putting in questionable effort. Right field and DH are going to be pretty comparable next season as well. If either Francoeur or Cabrera are out there, I have confidence that they can post about league average numbers which is what Gabe Gross did. The big difference offensively is that the Rays bench was taken advantage of and was very good with guys like Ben Zobrist, the aforementioned Eric Hinske and Willy Aybar. The Royals bench just isn’t that strong yet.

I think the bullpens were comparable and the starting pitching favors the 2008 Rays. I have a feeling that a lot of the pundits will be predicting that the Royals will be a lot like the 2008 Rays. They have a ton of young talent and a lot of young talent on the way, so people tend to make the comparison whether or not they actually believe it’s true. I don’t know why, but I continue to be fascinated by the turnaround of the Rays. The big difference in what they did from 2007 to 2008 was improved their defense, and it almost instantly improved their pitching staff. The scary thing is that the Royals already have improved their defense, though it still has a ways to go to become what the numbers would indicate as good.

It’s an interesting comparison to make for the Royals because I think 2008 for the Rays was supposed to be a lot like 2012 will be for the Royals. Coming into the season, they’re expected to show improvement, but not necessarily contend. For the Rays in the East, they especially weren’t expecting to contend in 2008. 2009 was really the Rays target contention year while 2013 is really the Royals season. It’s funny when rebuilding plans work because they always seem to come to fruition a year ahead of schedule and then the following year is what you expected the previous year to be. That held true with the Rays who went 84-78 in 2009, which is probably more in line with what they expected the previous season. Anyway, the point is that you should pay attention to the Rays this weekend and hope that the Royals are that successful.

Betemit Traded, Royals Win

I think we all can now see that the problem with the Royals was Wilson Betemit. Of course I kid. The Royals yesterday traded Wilson Betemit to the division rival Detroit Tigers for pitcher Antonio Cruz and catcher Julio Rodriguez. I know nothing about these two players other than their numbers and that they are not considered in the upper tier of Tigers prospects, so I can’t provide a ton of analysis other than what you can find for yourself, but I’ll see if I can’t shine a little light on these two guys. Antonio Cruz is a left-handed pitcher who many see as a future reliever if he ever makes it to the big leagues. He throws a good fastball and good changeup and an inconsistent curve. He’ll be the youngest player on Kane County, but his numbers aren’t terribly impressive. Julio Rodriguez is a catcher who many see as an organizational guy who plays great defense. I think a lot of those guys can end up with careers as backup catchers due to the dearth of catching talent in the big leagues. A cursory look at his offensive numbers makes me hope that he’s like Ivan Rodriguez defensively.

In spite of the underwhelming players returned for Betemit, I think it was a good haul. For one, teams don’t give up big time prospects like they used to anymore, and if they do it’s for players better than Wilson Betemit. Don’t get me wrong. I’m probably one of Betemit’s biggest fans in Kansas City. When the Royals signed him to a minor league deal before last season, I loved it. See when I was little, the Royals didn’t have a ton of games on television, so I watched a lot of the Cubs and the Braves. The Cubs didn’t do it for me, but I really enjoyed the Braves, so much so that I’d consider them my National League team. Well, they had a young shortstop prospect named Wilson Betemit some years ago and they were constantly hyping him on TBS, so I sort of grew an affinity for him. Rational or not, I was sure that he was going to break out for the Royals. Sure enough, he had a very strong 2010 season and came back and was quite good for the Royals in 2011 before moving aside for Mike Moustakas.

The promotion of Moustakas is what took away a lot of the trade value of Wilson Betemit. When Betemit was playing every day, it was a near lock that he would achieve Type B free agent status meaning the Royals could receive a pick in the compensation round of the 2012 draft if he left the Royals as a free agent. By putting him on the bench, he wasn’t in a position to accumulate the numbers necessary to reach that status. Additionally, as a bench player who hardly played, the Royals didn’t quite have the leverage that they did when he was starting. And finally, while a very solid player, Betemit is also very limited in what he’s capable of doing. He can hit, play a below average third base and fill in at first base. That’s useful, sure, but when you factor in that he is a free agent at the end of the season, it’s not worth much more than two lower level prospects who you hope can contribute as a role player in the big leagues.

The fallout from the trade and the timing of it was actually really important in the game last night because Betemit was originally in the starting lineup. So, the first thing that happened was Moustakas was back in the starting lineup against a tough lefty like John Danks. The second part of it was that Mike Aviles was recalled from AAA, but he would be unable to make it to the stadium in time for the game, so the Royals bench, which was already short with just three players was down to two. Then, when Melky Cabrera left the game with a stomach bug and Mitch Maier had to come in, the bench was down to just Matt Treanor. Now, this particular problem came into play because of a transaction that happened at an inopportune time for that night’s game, but it’s part of a larger problem of roster management. This is a big reason why teams should not carry 13 pitchers. Any little thing happens and your bench consists of your backup catcher.

So twice in the late innings of a tie game, Billy Butler reached base and could not be pinch run for due to two reasons. The first is that his replacement in Treanor wouldn’t have even been considered an upgrade and the second is that you can’t use your backup catcher like that. After the game, Yost mentioned that they had Kyle Davies ready to pinch run and potentially play outfield if need be, but I’m not sure if he was joking. I don’t think he was, which concerns me about Yost’s sanity, but that’s another story for another day. Luckily, the Royals returned the favor from the walk-off balk and were able to score on a walk-off wild pitch with none other than Billy Butler at the plate.

And that leads me to my final point for this rambling post which is the conversation that people are having that Butler looked upset when Gordon scored the winning run. Quite frankly, I’m sick of the bashing of Billy Butler. He is one of the best hitters on the Royals and is one of the best hitting designated hitters in baseball. I understand that people are disappointed with his power and RBI numbers, and I am, too. That fact doesn’t mean he’s not an amazing hitter. The criticism reached a new low last night. I was at the game, so I wasn’t able to see Butler’s reaction, but my guess is that he was a little bummed at himself because he swung at a bad pitch. Sometimes a designated hitter might feel a little detached from the game, which is why it’s so difficult for players to make that transition. As a designated hitter, the only way you can help your team is by hitting and Billy Butler’s swing and miss at that pitch in the dirt didn’t help his team in any way. It’s been a frustrating season for Billy, but to think that he has an attitude problem because you think he might have looked annoyed when Alex Gordon slid across home plate is absolutely ridiculous.

Behind Closed Doors

When the Royals fired Trey Hillman last season and hired Ned Yost, I was euphoric. I know that a baseball team doesn’t ultimately matter in my life, but my summers are pretty well taken up by Royals games and thinking about ways they can get better. Luckily, they’re usually pretty bad so there’s not much down time in thinking about those ways. When I heard that Trey Hillman was finally out as manager, I figured that the Royals had figured out the first way to get on their way to being a better club who could compete for a division title. And for a long time, it didn’t really matter what Ned Yost did because he had one huge thing going for him: he wasn’t Trey Hillman. As time passes, it becomes clearer to me why exactly he was fired with his Brewers in the thick of a pennant race. When he was hired and people from Milwaukee told us of his faults, I thought that they were silly. Now, I’m beginning to understand way more than I did at the time.

The reason I bring this up is that the Royals had a closed door meeting yesterday that I assume was initiated by Ned Yost. Upon coming out of the meeting, Yost was asked questions by reporters about the nature of the meeting and he did not mention anything that was said. That part doesn’t bother me so much, but it’s how snippy he was with the reporters combined with the fact that he seems to be morphing back into Nervous Ned makes me believe that the Royals might not be able to win with him at the helm.

I was watching the Red Sox – Rays game on Sunday Night Baseball a couple days ago and in that game, Joe Maddon got kicked out. Then, a couple innings later, his bench coach, Dave Martinez, got kicked out as well. The announcers were talking about what they were doing the clubhouse and somebody mentioned that they were probably watching the game in Joe’s office. Then one of the other announcers chimed in to make the point that he doesn’t have a television in there and that they’re probably sipping on some expensive wine. The reason I tell that story is that it illustrates the difference between Maddon and Yost. Just once, I’d love it if the Royals make a hire like that and he turns out to be a mellow guy who can manage a hell of a baseball game.

Now I try not to harp on the manager because only in the extreme cases does a manager make a huge difference either way. Hillman was one of the excessive ways to the negative, and that worked out well for Yost. It’s easy to follow sheer incompetence because any kind of basic knowledge makes you look like a genius in comparison. Anyway, I’m doing talking about managerial qualifications. I’ve heard a quote that I’m sure you’ve heard many times as well. It is “winners win and losers meet” and that was the first thing I thought of when I heard reports that the Royals had a closed door meeting. If any team was in need of one, it was certainly the Royals. They were 22-22 at one point during the first Cardinals series. Can you believe that? Since then, they’re 17-36. That’s pretty pathetic.

I obviously have no idea what they could have talked about behind closed doors. As a fan, I hope they talked about the lackadaisical play of most of the team since the break. I hope they talked about the team’s inability to get a big hit when necessary. I hope they talked about the fact that the starting rotation needs to give seven innings every time out because the bullpen will be taxed otherwise. There’s every chance in the world that they talked about nothing at all and used the opportunity to close the door, get away from baseball and the media and just try to clear their heads. The thing about the 2011 Royals is there is a good baseball team buried somewhere on that roster. Unfortunately, it’s under a pile of bad baseball that the team just needs to get out of.

Think about that for a second. Ignoring the fact that this team has had some excellent stretches of baseball early in the season,, think about the fact that there’s more talent on this Royals team than we’ve seen in quite some time. On the infield, with the exception of Getz, everybody has a future in the big leagues as a starter. And (you knew there had to be an obligatory reference) Giavotella isn’t far away from the big leagues as the missing link to the future infield. The outfield is young and productive and will just get better when Cain can get to the big leagues. Catching sucks around baseball, so I’m not worried about that. The pitching staff looks good with the bullpen all set and the starters seem to be beginning to fall into place. Paulino looks good every time out and Duffy keeps getting better. Somewhere within this team is a good baseball team.

I don’t know. Maybe they find it behind closed doors. They looked awfully good last night with a couple exceptions. I know that Jake Peavy isn’t the same guy who won the Cy Young with the Padres a few years back, but he still throws hard and throws strikes. It’s a good combination and the Royals chipped away against him before getting him out of there in the seventh and then holding on. Danny Duffy looked as good as I’ve seen him after the first inning last night. He ended up throwing 94 pitches in 7 innings after having a 25 pitch first inning. That’s the kind of efficiency he needs to be a star in this league. So yeah, maybe they woke up from that meeting and will play much better from here on out. It would go a long way toward making fans believe that 2012 will be different than any other year in the past 27.

The Deadline Nears

I suppose you thought that after another fantastic day at the plate for Johnny Giavotella that I’d be writing a whole post about how he should be the Royals starting second baseman rather than Chris Getz. Well, I’m not going to do that. The fact that he’s still in Omaha, though, while Getz is masquerading as a Major League player is infuriating to me, and I just don’t get it, but I’m not going to get too terribly worked up over it until the trade deadline comes and goes. The reason for that is that we are less than two weeks away from the Royals potentially shaking up their roster. The problem with Giavotella right now is that he is not on the 40 man roster, so they would have to do some work to get people off the 40 man in order to get him to the big leagues. Yes, there is certainly some dead weight on there, but trades may be the best way to make the space. And if there is anybody up above looking out for the Royals, a contending team will lose their second baseman in the next week or so and actually want to trade for Chris Getz.

Rany stole my thunder a little bit with his post from a couple of days ago about the trade value and the likelihood of certain players getting traded, but I’m going to talk about it anyway. As you all know, the Royals have a few players who are probably not really a part of the future and they have what appears to be suitable replacements in the minor leagues that might actually make the team better. The Royals spent the off-season doing exactly what they should have done. For young players ready to play in the big leagues, they were on the roster. For those who were not ready, the Royals signed stop gap free agents. It’s not typical for me to praise what they did, but I think they did the right thing signing guys like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur.

In regard to those two signings, it’s funny what half a season can do to change opinions. In the offseason I thought the signings were good ideas in principle because the Royals needed someone to handle the outfield duties. Of course, the Royals hadn’t yet traded for Lorenzo Cain, so that wasn’t an issue in anybody’s mind just yet. Even though Cain wasn’t in the fold, I did not like the signing of Melky Cabrera after reading reports that he was out of shape and didn’t work very hard at his craft. On the other hand, while I mocked the Jeff Francoeur signing just like everybody else did, I thought it had a chance to work out well, especially if the Royals used him as a platoon partner for someone. Well, as it has turned out, Cabrera got into better shape and has been one of the Royals best hitters while Jeff Francoeur is doing his best to make sure nobody forgets his April because if they do, they’ll realize that he’s been absolutely terrible since then. So now, it’s easy to look in the minors and realize that the Royals have only one outfielder who, without a doubt, is ready to play in the big leagues every day and that is Lorenzo Cain. There’s increasing sentiment that the Royals should trade just one of the outfielders they signed and keep the other. I think I might agree with that, but I think they should keep Cabrera. He’s due arbitration after the season, but still shouldn’t make a ton of money and can handle right field until Wil Myers is ready sometime during the next season.

Anyway, I meant to get to the trade possibilities much sooner than this, but hopefully you stayed with me through my ramblings. There are essentially five players who have some serious trade value on the Royals roster right now. They are the two outfielders, Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen and Joakim Soria. I’d put Billy Butler on the list, but I just don’t think they’re going to dangle him at this point. He’s in a deep slump and might be traded in the off-season, but right now his value is about as low as it’s been since his sophomore season. With those five above, though, there are certainly contenders who could use them and who could give up something good for them.

Melky Cabrera; Possible Destinations: Red Sox, Rays, Phillies, Pirates, Giants – All these teams need outfield help in some way or another. Teams like Tampa Bay probably wouldn’t need to trade somebody for a guy like Cabrera as they have two outfielders in the minor league system who have a chance to contribute, but they might need some help regardless. The nice thing about a guy like Cabrera is that he’s been a fourth outfielder before, so if he’s brought into a situation where a team needs a rental because of an injured outfielder returning in mid-September, he can slide into that role again when the time comes. I think the Royals can actually expect more for Cabrera because of all the teams who could use him. Dayton Moore recently said that he’s looking for near ready starting pitching in trades, but I think the best bet with trading is to trade for talent in the lower levels of the minors and hope that you come up with a stud. Cabrera could bring back two very talented, raw minor leaguers or a prospect at the back end of the top ten in a mediocre system.

Jeff Francouer: Possible Destinations: Red Sox, Indians, Phillies – Francoeur is less marketable than Cabrera. For one, he can’t play center field. You can argue all you want that Melky can’t either, but he hasn’t been heinous there this season in spite of some of his troubles, so in a smaller ballpark I think Cabrera could patrol center decently enough for half a season. Francoeur is, however, a very good right fielder. The most likely destination for him is Philadelphia where they badly need a right-handed hitting right fielder who can mash lefties and play good defense. I’d love to see them be able to get a guy like Trevor May, but unless the Phillies get really desperate I don’t think they’d part with him for Francoeur. Now, if you add Soria to the mix, maybe they could get something going there. A guy like Vance Worley might be a fair return for Francoeur from the Phillies and it would give the Royals their near ready starting pitcher.

Jeff Francis/Bruce Chen: Possible destinations: Yankees, Indians, Tigers, Brewers, Cardinals – Any team in contention could use more pitching. I group these two together because I don’t think the Royals are going to trade both of them, but I do think they’re going to trade one of them. Neither pitcher is going to fetch much on the open market, so the Royals could probably have their choice of a mediocre arm who is pretty good in AAA, but probably won’t be more than a reliever in the Majors or a raw guy with some potential in the low minors. I’d take the raw guy every day of the week.

Joakim Soria: Possible destinations: Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies, Diamondbacks – Realistically, every team wants Joakim Soria. Some teams don’t need him, but every team wants him. Sadly, he has more value to the team he is on than he does on the trade market. Teams don’t typically give up serious talent for closers, last year’s Ramos for Capps trade notwithstanding. I mentioned above potentially packaging Soria with Francoeur to the Phillies and that could get the Royals a really nice package including any of the high upside arms in the Phillies system as well as a guy like Worley who is ready now to contribute. I don’t think the Royals should trade Soria now, though, but rather in the off-season if they’re going to at all. I just don’t see a huge market for him at this point, which is odd because of how dominant he’s been since regaining the closer’s role.

So there you have it, just a few hundred words on the trade market for the Royals marketable players. Check back in two weeks to get an idea of what the roster looks like. Oh, and count on August 1 as the post where I scream bloody murder if Giavotella isn’t in the big leagues.

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It occurred to me that I’m an idiot and there is one more player who has some serious trade value on the Royals and that is Wilson Betemit. How I could overlook him is completely beyond me. I could see him as a fit with the Tigers, Angels, Brewers, Marlins and Braves. He might be able to get a mid-tiered prospect like Melky could get. That all depends of course on how desperate the team looking to trade for him gets.

Back on Monday

I had planned to get back to the blog today after the All-Star break, but I honestly have nothing worth saying about last night’s game. We’ll be back on Monday.

Good Time For a Break

Losing a 2-1 game on a scorching day is a tough way to head into the All-Star break, but when you’re facing the hottest pitcher in baseball in Justin Verlander, you sort of expect a loss. In his last  nine starts, Verlander is now 8-1 with a microscopic ERA of 0.75. He has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.4:1. If anything, the Royals did a better job against Verlander than other teams have throughout his amazing run as they hit .261 off him yesterday while the league had previously been hitting .179. All the hits were singles, but you take the victories where you can get them in cases such as these. After a game where the Royals can’t muster an extra base hit and never seem to mount any serious attack, it would be easy to get upset about one thing or another, but it’s hard to get broken up about losing to a guy who hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start since before Memorial Day.

The one thing I am a little upset about is the way the Royals have run the bases lately. Way back in Spring Training, the Royals talked about how they were going to be more aggressive on the bases because that’s the way they’d have to be in order for their offense to be able to compete without the power that a lot of other teams have. Early in the year they were running the bases great with stolen bases, taking the extra base on lazy outfielders and all sorts of things that were helping the tam push across a run here and there that made the difference. It’s a big reason why they started off the season so well in the standings. I’m not sure what happened, but at some point they started making some terrible decisions. I don’t remember this exact situation, but the Royals were either down by one in the ninth or tied with Chris Getz on second with two outs, and he tried to steal third. He made, but are you kidding me? What a terrible decision. Yesterday, with the Royals down by one, Eric Hosmer doubled to lead off the ninth and then with one out and Mike Moustakas at the plate, he attempted a steal of third. This time he was caught.

There’s a lot of debate about that play as to whether or not Hosmer was safe. It was hard to tell for me, but through my blue colored glasses, he appeared to be safe. That’s not the point. The point is that it was a terrible decision to go for third with a runner like Hosmer. Don’t get me wrong, Hosmer isn’t exactly lead footed, but he’s no Jarrod Dyson either. I’m not sure who made that decision, but it was the absolute wrong one and it may have cost the Royals the opportunity to win a game that Justin Verlander started which would be quite an accomplishment. The point is that while the Royals do need to be aggressive on the base paths and steal runs from their opponents, they have to do it smartly because they’re taking runs off the board the way they have been running lately.

With all that, this is an excellent opportunity for the Royals to get away from baseball for a few days and regroup before coming back strong for the second half. The team is terrible record-wise, and every so often you wonder how they’re ever going to win another game again. I still maintain that they’re going to be a better team at the end of the year than at the beginning. The record may not reflect that, but I still believe that from about mid-August to the end of the season we’ll get to see some pretty good baseball out of the Royals that will make everybody a believer that 2012 will be a fun season. With so many young players, it’s tough to get out of team wide slumps. I think the Royals are a mentally tough team who can do it, but I think the All-Star break is a big help to them.

The person who I think can most benefit from the break is Mike Moustakas. He came up and he predictably struggled. I expected him to struggle with a little more power than he’s shown, but I think that’ll come soon. He just has to make a couple of adjustments at the plate and he’ll be fine moving forward. I think he’ll hit 12 homers after the break. The other group that will benefit from the break is the starting rotation as they get a chance to reset. They’re still not good, but they’re going from awful to somewhat mediocre, and as soon as Davies gets out of there, they might be all the way there. If Mike Montgomery replaces a potentially traded Jeff Francis in the rotation and pitches like he’s capable, then things will be starting to look up for the rotation.

It’s been sort of a wacky first part of the season. The Royals started off so well at 10-4 and then at one point at 17-14 and even being at .500 at 22-22. Obviously, the bottom has fallen out of the season since then, but this team is still entertaining to watch which is what everybody figured would be the case with all the young talent on the field for the team. Sometimes it can be extremely frustrating, but other times you see those glimpses of what the talent can do and you can’t help but dream of a pennant chase in a couple of years and a run through the playoffs and then maybe even a parade down the plaza like Dayton Moore had mentioned in his first few days in Kansas City. Sometimes it’s quite difficult to see that future, but then every so often, the Royals will have a game when Hosmer goes 4-5 with a homer and a double or Moustakas will get two doubles and three runs batted in or Duffy will go seven innings on 91 pitches and you think that once they all put it together at the same time that this team will be pretty darn special. Over this break, do yourself a favor as a Royals fan. Think about the future rather than the past. It’ll put a smile on your face.

Progress

The Royals lost last night, which is not anything particularly new for them. It wasn’t a very eventful game. The Tigers hit a two-run homer in the top of the second and the Royals scored in the bottom of the fifth using some pretty nice situational hitting to get the run home against a very good Max Scherzer. I say a very good Max Scherzer because at times this year he has not been so good, but last night he was throwing strikes and throwing well. The Tigers scored a run in the top of the ninth off Aaron Crow (who has struggled mightily in his last two appearances since being named an All-Star) to make it 3-1 and that’s how the game ended. It seems like a pretty ho-hum regular loss that happens a lot over the course of a long baseball season, but it counts as progress toward Danny Duffy’s development as a big leaguer.

A few starts ago, I made the comment that Danny Duffy works way too slow. I don’t think a pitcher has to pitch at the pace of Mark Buehrle in order to be successful, but it helps if he takes less than 30 seconds between pitches. His defense benefits, his command benefits, the fans benefit. In that start in which I commented on the glacial like speed with which he works, Duffy went four innings, gave up five runs on eight hits, walked four and struck out just one batter. At that point, he had worked 30.1 innings, allowed 33 hits, walked 21 batters and struck out just 20 while posting a 5.55 ERA through six starts. I’m not insinuating that the Royals or Duffy read this blog, but after that post that I made, things have changed for Duffy. The results haven’t been demonstrably better on the runs allowed front, but the peripherals have gotten much better, which indicates better times ahead for Duffy and the Royals.

Since that game, Duffy has made five starts and gone 27.2 innings. It’s a modest uptick from the number of innings he had thrown per start over his first six, but still an uptick. Some will point to the fact that he left with an injury after just 3.2 innings in St. Louis, but he had thrown so many pitches that at most he would have gone five that day. In order to be successful in the big leagues, you have to average at least six innings, and that’s the very bottom of the barrel. Still, he’s been much better since that game against the Blue Jays in which children were able to take naps between pitches. He has posted his first big league win, but more importantly, in those 27.2 innings, he has struck out 25 and walked eight. You can with that kind of ratio. Most pitchers with that kind of ratio do win, and it’s huge that Duffy has taken a big step in harnessing his command because it shows that his stuff is good enough that when it is in the strike zone it is deadly. In those five starts, he has a 4.23 ERA which is not great, especially not in run depressed 2011, but it’s a huge improvement.

When Duffy first came up, I could tell that he was ready. His stuff was better than anybody’s on the Royals pitching staff and better than many of the pitchers who rolled into Kauffman Stadium. It was pretty obvious, also, that his problems were not going to be solved by going back to AAA and watching those hitters flail away at his pitches a foot off the plate. He needed to be in the big leagues to learn that he can’t just put a breaking ball off the plate and have a strikeout. He had to work to get big league hitters out. Some pitchers figure that out quicker than others, and it looks like Duffy is on his way to figuring that out. I don’t think he has ace type stuff, but I do think he can be an outstanding number two in a future Royals rotation. If things work out like everyone hopes and he ends up being the  Royals number three starter, then you might as well just start printing playoff tickets. Of course, it’s not so simple as that, but it’s good to see Duffy getting going.

There’s also serious progress being made in the minor leagues with Danny Duffy’s former rotation mate, Mike Montgomery. This might be the best development of the season. As you all know, Montgomery has struggled big time this season, getting hit hard, walking batters and giving up runs in droves. After being ranked the Royals top pitching prospect and the number 18 prospect in all of baseball, many believed that Montgomery would be the first starter to the big leagues and would already be at least holding his own in Kauffman Stadium. He pitched very well in spring training, and you got the impression that the Royals seriously considered starting the year with him on the roster. When the Royals held the future’s game earlier this year, he was just so good and dominant that people thought it wouldn’t be long before he was a fixture in the rotation. Then he was bad in AAA. It was a bit of a concern. I think I mentioned in this space a fairly cryptic tweet from Greg Schaum that Montgomery was working on some things and that he would be back in top prospect form in a couple of starts.

A couple of starts later was July 1. Montgomery went 6.2 innings, gave up no runs on two hits, struck out seven and walked three. The walks were still slightly up, but manageable and he gave up next to nothing hit-wise. Then his last start was a couple of days ago when he went five innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out five and walked nobody. He was pulled after 59 pitches because of a rain delay, so you know he could have gone longer and probably continued pitching extremely well. I’ve got news for you. If Montgomery is back as a top prospect and pitches well over his next three or four starts, I wouldn’t be shocked to get him four or five starts in the big leagues before they shut him down for the year. He’s thrown 90.1 innings this year, and I assume the Royals don’t want him going over 160 or so based on what he threw last year in the minors and the AFL. If he starts four more times in AAA and throws 25 innings then he’d have about 45 or 50 innings to show what he can do in the big leagues.

Mike Montgomery figuring things out is a giant development in the world of the Royals. He, along with Danny Duffy, form the hope that the Royals can compete in 2012. Well, that’s not entirely true. The scrap heap pickup of Felipe Paulino may prove to be one of the best moves of the Dayton Moore era if he continues to pitch as well as his peripherals indicate he would. A month ago, on June 9, the Royals pitching future seemed pretty bleak. Duffy was struggling at the big league level, Montgomery was struggling at the minor league level and no pitcher under 30 was excelling for the Royals. Now, it seems like there’s some pitching hope and I’d call that progress.

What’s Next?

We’ve passed Independence Day and the halfway point of the season at about the same time, and the Royals find themselves in a familiar position. They are in last place by a familiar margin, and every night seems like an uphill battle just to get the occasional win. We’ve been here before as fans. This is the time when fan attention usually shifts to next year. Maybe some pundits start talking about the draft while others take a look at who might be prime for a September callup. Most of all, though, people are talking which of the Royals pieces who are not a part of the future can be traded for pieces who may be. That’s much easier said than done, of course, because in order to trade for someone good, a team typically has to give up someone good. There are exceptions like trading Farnsworth and Ankiel and getting Tim Collins in return, but even then it is hard to argue that Farnsworth was having a nice season.

After promoting two of the top hitting prospects, one of the top pitching prospects and a slew of young relievers, the farm system is coming down a bit from its lofty status at the beginning of the season. Still, there is talent in the minors, and the rest of the season should be devoted to getting that talent moving through the system. Things already started when the Royals promoted Jake Odorizzi to AA where he’ll make his first start tonight. If he does well in AA, he becomes a candidate to be a member of the 2012 staff at some point. If he struggles, then his timeline stays at 2013. Either way, that movement is good. It allows the Royals to get a look at him at a higher level and see what they truly have in him. I’d love to take a drive down to Northwest Arkansas and see him pitch sometime myself.

Of those who could make the jump to the big leagues, the major players in this game are Lorenzo Cain, Johnny Giavotella and Mike Montgomery. Cain and Giavotella appear ready while Montgomery needs to show me a few starts like the one he had on Friday before I feel good that he’s completely ready. I’ve rallied for Giavotella many times in this space. Why I want him in the big leagues isn’t entirely because of my love for him, though I am quite enamored with him as a prospect. It’s more for who he would be replacing in the Royals lineup. When your second baseman is Chris Getz and the second baseman you have in the minors is hitting .321/.376/.456 it’s sort of a no-brainer to most teams. There are those out there who believe Giavotella isn’t ready for the big leagues. Realistically, many of these people are much smarter than me, but I just strongly dislike Chris Getz and don’t see Giavotella as a guy who will wilt under the pressure. I could be wrong. It’s happened before. Anyway, I’d like to see Giavotella up here ASAP and plugged into the starting lineup at or near the top. But then, if you’ve read this blog in the past, you knew that already.

Lorenzo Cain is a different story. I haven’t seen him play in Omaha, but assuming his strikeouts are something that just won’t be changed, he’s ready for the big leagues. He hit well in his Major League debut last season and is hitting extremely well in AAA to the tune of a .311/.377/.524 line. The one aspect of his game that he had not yet really displayed prior to the trade is power and he’s got a .213 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average). That’s excellent, and just furthers the comparisons to Torii Hunter. Right now Hunter is overpaid significantly, but if the Royals had him in center field for the last ten years, I don’t think anyone would be complaining too terribly much. Cain supposedly plays very good defense and is a great guy in the clubhouse.

The problem is not so much of a problem as it is a roadblock. The Royals outfield is full right now. While I did not support the Melky Cabrera signing, and I maintain that his play of late is pretty fluky, he’s playing well right now and might be worth something on the trade market. Because of that, the Royals have to play him. I’m just hoping they don’t see him as the center fielder of the future and decide to trade Cain. Well, that’s not true. If the Braves are still enamored with Cain and are willing to give up Minor or Beachy, then that’s a trade I’d support fully. Short of something like that, I think Cain is the future in center for the Royals and will be a very big part of the next good Royals team.

The other roadblock for Cain is Jeff Francoeur. More and more, I’m liking the idea of trading Francoeur for whatever the Royals can get in return and shifting Cabrera over to right while Cain comes up to play center. That is, of course, if the Royals can’t get anything good in return for Cabrera. The thing about Melky is that the Royals have him under team control for next season if they so choose, and they don’t really have a right fielder in the pipeline who will be ready to come up before mid-season. Wil Myers may have been ready for Opening Day next year before injuries carved up his first half in AA. It’s no secret that I dislike Francoeur. I love what he brings to the table defensively, but I think that value could be replaced by Cain. If the Royals trade both, I wonder if they’d bring up David Lough and plop him in right field or if they’d go with Dyson in center and Cain in right. I hope they wouldn’t jerk around the organization’s center fielder of the future like that.

And the last piece who I mentioned above is Mike Montgomery. After struggling for much of the season, he came out on Friday with a performance worth noting. Greg Schaum had mentioned a couple weeks back that he was working on some things and in two more starts would be back to the Montgomery who was shooting up the prospect charts. Well, he was dead on. Let’s hope he continues to be right because I think four or five straight good starts gets him to the big league rotation. There are a few trade candidates in the rotation and some dead weight that needs to be dropped. I think it’s vital to get Montgomery to the big leagues for at least six weeks this season in order to get him acclimated to the Majors. If the Royals are going to be good, he’s going to be a number one or number two starter by 2013. Six weeks this year plus all of next season will go a long, long way toward making that happen.

Sometimes when the big league club is struggling so much, it’s very difficult to see the forest through the trees. I’m guilty of that as much as anybody. When I see a guy like Eric Hosmer swing at the third high fastball in a row to strike out, I think that the Royals can ruin anybody. It’s helpful to take a step back and look at the big picture, though. The talent is there. There’s money to be spent on pitching. I still believe this team is going to be good, and it’s going to be pretty darn soon.